Methodology v12

UFO Believe Index — Methodology & Data Guide

The scoring framework may be refined as further investigation, research, and validation identify improvements that can make the index more accurate. Any material changes are recorded through the methodology version and reflected in the published documentation.

A daily 0–100 measure of how much English-language public discourse leans toward genuine UFO/UAP belief versus skepticism. This page explains exactly how the score is built, what it can and cannot tell you, and how to access historical data.

Not financial advice. The Believe Index tracks public sentiment and attention around UFO/UAP topics. It does not predict token prices, guarantee trading outcomes, or represent insider information. Past index readings are not indicative of future market performance. Use it as one contextual signal among many — never as a sole basis for investment decisions.

What this index is

Each UTC calendar day, the index aggregates six independent signals — social media, news, search, Wikipedia traffic, Reddit, and YouTube — into a single score from 0 (extreme disbelief) to 100 (full disclosure-level belief).

The index answers a narrow question: “On this day, did public conversation about UFOs/UAP lean believer, skeptic, or neutral?” It is designed for researchers, journalists, community members, and traders who want a quantified read on narrative momentum — not a fundamental valuation model.

What this index is not

  • Not proof that UFOs exist or do not exist.
  • Not a measure of token liquidity, holder count, or on-chain activity.
  • Not immune to bot activity, media cycles, or keyword gaming.
  • Not equally reliable every day — see Confidence.

How the daily score is calculated

Every signal source returns its own 0–100 sub-score. Sources that fail (missing API key, rate limit, empty data) are marked ok: false and excluded. Their declared weight is redistributed proportionally across the sources that succeeded, so the index always resolves to a number.

finalScore = round( Σ (sourceScore × effectiveWeight) )

effectiveWeight(source) =
  declaredWeight(source) / Σ declaredWeight(ok sources)

confidence = Σ declaredWeight(ok sources) / Σ declaredWeight(all sources)

Example: if News (20%) is unavailable but all other sources succeed, the remaining 80% of weight is scaled up so the live sources still sum to 100%. Confidence drops from 1.0 to 0.80 because one fifth of the intended signal set is missing.

Declared source weights (methodology v12)

SignalWeightPrimary question
X28%Is X/Twitter discourse leaning believer or skeptic?
UAP News20%How is mainstream press framing UFO/UAP stories?
Wikipedia15%Are people reading UFO topics on Wikipedia?
Reddit18%What tone dominates UFO subreddits today?
Google Trends9%Is Google search interest elevated for UFO keywords?
YouTube10%What is YouTube UFO/UAP video discourse saying?

Score bands

RangeLabelInterpretation
0–24Extreme DisbeliefIt's just swamp gas.
25–44DisbeliefSkeptics are circling.
45–55Watching the SkiesSomething's out there…
56–74BelieverWe are not alone.
75–100Full DisclosureTake me with you. 🛸

Confidence

Every published day includes a confidence value between 0 and 1. It equals the fraction of declared source weight that contributed successfully. When confidence is below 0.5, the UI shows “low confidence” — meaning half or more of the intended signals were missing or failed.

For financial or research use, treat low-confidence days as directional hints only. Prefer days with 5/6 or 6/6 signals active when backtesting narrative correlation.

Signal-by-signal methodology

X — 28%

Data: public posts on X (Twitter) · Window: target UTC day

Scans English-language UFO/UAP discourse on X for the target day — top posts, threads, and replies — and scores whether conversation leaned believer, skeptic, or neutral. Coverage counts are stored for transparency.

UAP News — 20%

Data: mainstream and independent UAP news · Window: target UTC day

Reviews news coverage and commentary about UFO/UAP/disclosure stories published on the target day, scoring overall framing and tone across articles and linked discussion.

Wikipedia — 15%

Data: Wikimedia Pageviews API · Articles: curated UFO/UAP Wikipedia pages · Backfill: to 2015

Fetches daily English Wikipedia pageviews for every tracked article that existed on the target day. The raw per-article views are stored, then summed into one daily wiki attention total.

The wiki sub-score is max-normalized across stored history: the highest total-view day is 100, and every other day is scored as its percentage of that high-water mark. A new breakout day can therefore rescale prior wiki scores, similar to how Google Trends presents relative interest.

Reddit — 18%

Data: r/UFOs, r/aliens, r/UAP, r/HighStrangeness · Window: target UTC day

Samples posts and comments from UFO-focused subreddits for the target day and scores whether community discourse leaned toward belief, skepticism, or neutral curiosity.

Google Trends — 9%

Data: Google Trends (unofficial) · Keywords: UFO, UAP, alien sighting, UFO disclosure · Window: 90-day percentile

Fetches search interest over a trailing 90-day window and scores the target day as its percentile rank within that window. A spike in search activity relative to the last three months yields a higher score.

Uses the free Google Trends API where available. Failures are non-fatal — weight redistributes to other sources.

YouTube — 10%

Data: YouTube · Window: videos and comments from the target UTC day

Reviews UFO/UAP video uploads and comment discourse for the target day, scoring whether conversation leaned believer, skeptic, or neutral.

Skipped during historical backfill — intended for live daily compute only.

Update schedule

The index is computed once per UTC day via automated cron (10:00 UTC). Each day’s score is stored in MongoDB with per-source breakdowns, validation status, methodology version, and confidence. Historical series are available through the public API and the on-site history chart.

Accessing the data

On-site: the Believe Index section on the homepage shows today’s reading, active signals, and a scrollable history chart. Click any day for component detail.

API (subscribers): holders with API access or paid subscription can query GET /api/data for latest scores, single days, or date ranges. Connect a Solana wallet on-site to obtain a key or subscribe.

Response fields include score, label, confidence, sources[] (per-signal score, weight, raw metadata), and sourceHealth (validation summary).

Known limitations

  • English-language bias across most text-based sources.
  • Discourse scoring captures tone and framing but can miss sarcasm or regional nuance.
  • Sample sizes are small by design (e.g. 10 tweets, 30 news articles) to control API cost.
  • Source availability varies by date — always check confidence and per-source status.
  • Methodology version changes (currently v12) require backfill to refresh stored history.
  • Correlation with any asset price has not been validated by UFO Coin — users must run their own analysis.

Methodology changes

Version 12 consolidates discourse signals from X, news, Reddit, YouTube, Google Trends, and Wikipedia pageviews into one daily belief index — measuring public narrative direction, not token price action.

When methodology changes, stored days retain their version tag. Re-run backfill with force=true to recompute history under the new rules.

Last updated for methodology v12. For operator documentation and debug endpoints, see the technical README in the repository.

UFO Believe Index — Methodology & Data Guide | UFO Coin